Matthews: Yankees in seven
Phillies, New York could pack some serious wallop
If the stadiums don’t become igloos, the 2009 World Series has the makings to be a true Fall Classic.
The New York Yankees will be going for their 27th world championship, but the nation’s most-respected and most-hated pro sports team will need to play at a very high level to beat the defending champion Philadelphia Phillies.
The Yankees are surprisingly heavy favorites to win the World Series starting tonight in their new stadium. The Yankees always are favored. But the Phillies are out to make some history of their own. The franchise that didn’t win its first World Series until 1980 can win consecutive championships for the first time.
There are plenty of reasons to like the Yankees in this matchup. They have one of the most-potent top-to-bottom lineups in baseball history. CC Sabathia is a superstar starting pitcher. Mariano Rivera is the all-time greatest relief pitcher. But there are nearly as many reasons to like the Phillies. They have an American League-style lineup, with power to match the Yankees. Cliff Lee gives them a chance in any pitching matchup against Sabathia, and the rest of Philadelphia’s starting rotation is deeper than New York’s. The huge question mark is Phillies closer Brad Lidge. After a horrible regular season, he bounced back in the National League playoffs and resembled the near-perfect closer he was in 2008.
Here’s how the teams match up by position:
1B — Mark Teixeira (Yankees; .292, 39 HRs, 122 RBI) hits for a higher average and strikes out less than Ryan Howard (Phillies; .279, 45 HRs, 141 RBI), but Howard has even more power. Teixeira has a much better glove. He could help win a game for the Yankees with his defense while Howard could contribute to a loss with his glove or arm. Howard, who lost 40 pounds last offseason, was much hotter (.355, 2 HRs, 14 RBI) than Teixeira (.205, 1 HR, 5 RBI) in the playoffs and has 6 HRs in 26 career postseason games. Slight edge to Yankees.
2B — Chase Utley (Phillies; .282, 102 runs, 31 HRs, 23 stolen bases) can do it all offensively — hit for average and power, steal bases, take a walk and even get hit by a pitch (he led the majors with 24). Robinson Cano (Yankees; .320, 48 doubles, 25 HRs, 103 runs) is a potential batting champion and flashier with the glove than Utley, but he has less power, often struggles with runners in scoring position and rarely steals a base. Slight edge to Phillies.
SS — Captain Clutch Derek Jeter (Yankees; .334, 107 runs, 30 stolen bases) is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer, the heart of the team, and a proven October player. Switch-hitting Jimmy Rollins (Phillies; .250 after a very slow start, 21 HRs, 100 runs, 31 stolen bases) won’t make Cooperstown but does lead Jeter in MVP awards (1 to 0), has more range and could get hot. Slight edge to Yankees.
3B — Alex Rodriguez (Yankees; .286, 30 HRs, 100 RBI in 124 games) is red hot (.438 batting average, 5 HRs, 12 RBI and 9 walks in the AL playoffs) and has all but erased his tag as an October choke artist. Pedro Feliz (Phillies; .266, 12 HRs, 82 RBI) is a decent player but not in A-Rod’s class. Feliz was ice cold in the playoffs (.161, 1 HR, 2 RBI). Big advantage to Yankees.
LF — Raul Ibanez (Phillies; .272, 34 HRs, 93 RBI) was a terrific free-agent addition and is a slightly better defensive player than Johnny Damon (Yankees; .282, 24 HRs, 107 runs). In games played at Yankee Stadium, Ibanez could DH, with Ben Francisco (.257, 15 HRs, 46 RBI) taking his spot in LF. Damon is a threat to steal and has more big-game experience than Ibanez/Francisco. He has one of the weakest outfield arms in baseball. Slight edge to Phillies.
CF — Shane Victorino (Phillies; .292, 102 runs, 25 stolen bases) is an underrated all-around player. He hit .361 with 3 HRs and 7 RBI in the playoffs. Melkey Cabrera (Yankees; .274, 13 HRs, 68 RBI) had a decent season and hit .391 in the ALCS, but he isn’t the all-around player Victorino is. Both are switch-hitters. Advantage to Phillies.
RF — Jayson Werth (Phillies; 36 HRs, 99 RBI, 20 stolen bases) had a breakout season. The right-handed hitting former first-round draft pick of Baltimore as a catcher is particularly tough against lefty pitchers and has a terrific arm. He had 5 HRs and 10 RBI in nine NL playoff games. Nick Swisher (Yankees; .249, 29 HRs, 82 RBI) is a streaky hitter. He walks a lot and strikes out a lot. He hit .125 in the AL playoffs. He’s no Gold Glove defensively. Edge to Phillies.
C — Jorge Posada (Yankees; .285, 22 HRs, 81 RBI) remains a dangerous switch-hitter but has slipped defensively. The Phillies will test his arm. The Yankees are hurt when weak-hitting catcher Jose Molina catches for A.J. Burnett, because when the erratic Burnett starts, the Yankees need all the firepower they can muster. Carlos Ruiz (Phillies) is better defensively than Posada and hit .346 with 1 HR and 7 RBI in the NL playoffs. He hit .375 in last year’s World Series. Slight edge to Yankees (when Posada plays).
DH — Hideki Matsui (Yankees; .274, 28 HRs, 90 RBI) is one of baseball’s most consistent DHs. The Phillies figure to use Ibanez at DH and Ben Francisco in left field in games in Yankee Stadium. Advantage to Yankees (because Francisco figures to play LF for the Phillies when Ibanez is the DH).
BENCH — The Yankees can use Brett Gardner, Eric Hinske, former Red Wing Jerry Hairston Jr., Ramiro Pena, Francisco Cervelli and Molina. The Phillies have Francisco, Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Eric Bruntlett. Paul Bako and Miguel Cairo. The Phillies don’t use their reserves much. Edge to Yankees.
STARTING ROTATION — The Phillies are deep with three solid lefties in Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22 ERA), 2008 World Series hero Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32 ERA) and J.A. Happ (12-4, 2.93 ERA), and righties Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.63 ERA) and perhaps Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.05 ERA. The Yankees have lefties CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37 ERA) and Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16 ERA; 16-9, 3.91career postseason record and righty A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04 ERA), who struggles with his control at times. They hope they won’t need a fourth starter probably (Chad Gaudin). Sabathia is the best starting pitcher entering this World Series (3-0, 1.19 in the AL playoffs), but overall, Philadelphia’s depth makes this Even.
MIDDLE RELIEF – The Phillies can use Martinez, Scott Eyre, Chad Durbin, Chan Ho Park and Ryan Madson. The Yankees can call on Joba Chamberlain, Gaudin, Phil Hughes, hard-throwing David Robertson and Alfredo Aceves, and lefthanders Phil Coke and Damaso Marte. Slight edge to Yankees (assuming Chamberlain will have his act together).
CLOSER — Mariano Rivera (Yankees) is the all-time best (37 postseason saves, 8-1 record, 0.77 ERA) and the Phillies haven’t seen much of him. Brad Lidge (Phillies) at times can be unhittable,, but which Lidge will show up? He was awful in the 2009 regular season (11 blown saves), but he was 48-for-48 in save opportunities in 2008 and is the only closer in this year’s playoffs not to allow a run. Advantage to Yankees (unless Lidge regains his 2008 form).
MANAGER — Joe Girardi (Yankees) can over-manage at times. Charlie Manuel (Phillies) makes some strange moves but was sharp enough to win the 2008 World Series and get to the 2009 World Series. Slight edge to Phillies.
STATS AND FACTS — The Yankees were great at home in the 2009 regular season (57-24) but the Phillies had the best road record in the majors (48-33; they were 45-36 at home). … Each team has 10 current or former All-Stars on its roster … The Yankees led the majors in run differential (plus-162; 915-753). The Phillies were plus-111 (820-709). … The Yankees led the majors with 244 HRs. The Phillies tied Texas for 2nd with 224 HRs. For the first time since 1926 (Yankees 121, Cardinals 91), the teams finishing 1-2 in the majors in HRs will meet in the World Series. …Yankees stole 111 bases in 139 attempts. The Phillies stole 119 bases in 147 attempts. … Opponents were 125 of 177 stealing against the Yankees. Opponents were 95 of 132 stealing against the Phillies. … The Phillies had a 4.16 ERA (6th in the NL and 8th in MLB). The Yankees had a 4.26 ERA (4th in the AL and 12th in MLB). … The Yankees held opponents to a .251 batting average (5th in the majors). Opponents hit .265 against the Phillies (12th-highest in the NL). … The Phillies had 76 errors (tied for 2nd-fewest in the majors). The Yankees had 86 errors. … Some oddsmakers have the Yankees as much as a 2-to-1 favorite over the Phillies.
YANKEES-PHILLIES WORLD SERIES HISTORY: The Yankees are appearing in their 40th World Series (won 26 and lost 13). They have a 130-53 record in World Series games. … The Phillies are making only their seventh World Series appearance (lost four and won in 1980 and 2008). They’re 12-19 in World Series games. … In their only previous World Series meeting, the 1950 Yankees swept the outclassed young “Whiz Kids” 4-0.
THE BOTTOM LINE — The Yankees are an excellent team – arguably one of the 20-best teams in this storied franchise’s history IF they win this World Series. But the Phillies also are very good (16-4 in their last 20 postseason games) and could be underrated by fans who don’t watch a lot of NL baseball. … Lee has been excellent for the Phillies since being acquired from Cleveland and gives his team a shot to win at least one game head-to-head against Sabathia. … Poor weather won’t be an advantage for either team because they’re both used to it.
THE PREDICTION — Yankees in 7.
Game one
What: Philadelphia Phillies vs. N.Y. Yankees.
Where: Yankee Stadium, the Bronx.
First pitch: 7:57 tonight.
TV: Fox. Radio: WHAM-AM (1180).
Starting pitchers: Phillies, Cliff Lee; Yankees, CC Sabathia.
